If you give me a roll of quarters, I'll show you why some sports betting trends hold no value at all. I'll take ten of those quarters and flip them every Wednesday Night at precisely 7 o'clock PM for ten weeks. Every time I flip a quarter, I will note which side of the coin faces up when it lands and log it into my database.
At the end of the ten-week period, we will have heads vs tails record. Knowing that there is a 50% chance of a quarter landing heads-up anytime it is flipped (or 50% chance of it landing with the tail side up), which side of the quarter would you bet on to land facing up on the 11th Wednesday?
It doesn't matter. Perhaps the side of the quarter that you feel lucky with at the time would be the best answer here. Instead, it would better to do sports analysis through sports broadcasting (먹튀) services and further evaluations. That would bring better results in online sports betting.
Nonetheless, people track these useless statistics and wager with them every day. Somewhere in the NBA, there is probably a basketball team that has covered the point-spread 9 times in the last 10 Wednesday's. And somewhere out there, there are hundreds of people waiting to bet on that same basketball team the following Wednesday. If they have covered the number in nine of their last ten Wednesday games, the odds must be pretty good that they will cover again...Right?
Wrong. Let's go back to the quarters. Let's say in those ten weeks, the quarter landed "head's up" nine times. We would now have a sports betting trend that says, "This quarter has landed head's up in 9 of the last 10 Wednesday's". 9 out of 10 is 90%. But it doesn't mean that there is a ninety percent chance that on the eleventh Wednesday the quarter will land head's up!
The quarter always carries only a fifty percent chance of landing head's up. The trend is nothing more than the statistics of the past ten Wednesday's results. In no way is it beneficial in trying to predict the outcome of the eleventh Wednesday.
If you are going to bet on what side of the quarter lands facing up, next time study the quarter itself. Is it worn? Is it lopsided? Has a side of the quarter somehow decayed over time, thus losing some weight? Is there an aerodynamic advantage? Leave that trend alone, it is useless.
The same goes for if you want to bet on a football, baseball, basketball, or hockey game. We're not saying that all trends are useless, some indicate how a team might compete in certain situations. But study the teams involved in the game. Are they "worn out"? Does one team have a speed or weight advantage? Does one team have more motivation to win this game?
Are there any significant injuries? Don't bet on the "Lions" just because they won 6 of their last 7 Sunday games. More than likely, their line will be inflated on that 8th Sunday game (we'll leave the inflation topic for another post). Bet on the "Lions" because they're healthier, they have a height or speed advantage, or they are highly motivated.
Don't waste your time with useless trends, such as: "how many times a team has covered the point spread in the last ten Wednesday's", "how many times a team has covered the spread in last ten nights there was a full-moon", or "how many times a team has covered the number the last ten times that the President gave a televised speech." If you bet with trends as useless as these, you'll become part of a new trend: